Thursday, July 09, 2009

Test 1 Day 2 Cardiff

Australia 249/1 Ponting 100*, Katich 103* trail by 186 runs.

348 runs scored in the day for the loss of 4 wickets. This on the back of 336 runs for the loss of 7 wickets on Day 1.

Attritional cricket all the way through and I expect the trend to continue. 9 overs before the new ball is available, so England wont be too displeased despite being batted out by Katich and the Prick on Day 2.

Australia's run rate is 3.5. Extrapolating this, it will take them 54 overs to over haul the England total. Then to build up a lead and give themselves enough time to bowl England out a second time.

There are 270 overs left in the test, weather permitting. Two innings changes, two opportunities to use the heavy or light rollers, 4 new balls, all 4 results a possibility.

For England, the new ball is going to be of paramount importance. They cannot let Australia get away by attacking the new ball - that will kill the Test for them right there. And in the 9 overs leading up to the new ball, it is imperative that they make run scoring as difficult as possible for the two set Australian batsmen.

Cut off the runs and attack with the new ball. And if the Australians can tide that, set in out fields to limit run making. There is another new ball available at the fag end of the day, so there is that additional opportunity right there.

If the Australians can be made to get the remaining 186 runs in 70 overs instead of 54, time will again be of essence. If the wicket has not deteriorated significantly, Australia will want enough time to bowl England out ( and leave themselves a window to get the remaining runs, if any).

Day 3 cant come soon enough!

PS:- The one thing that I will be keeping a look out for is the distribution of overs amongst the Aussie bowlers, when it is their turn to bowl. Given that there are 5 tests in 7 weeks, longevity is going to be important in deciding the fortunes of the teams. And given that the Aussie pacers have bowled 76 of the 107 overs in the England first innings, it will be interesting to see how the Prick handles the workload.

15 comments:

Krish said...

186 runs in 70 overs? That doesn't look too likely unless Australia loses many wickets. With Johnson coming when wickets fall, they are more likely to make runs faster if anything else.

Morning session will point the way, I guess.

Homer said...

Krish,

What about bowling two feet outside leg and turning the ball in - Nasser Hussain will most heartily advocate that as a strategy :).

Plus if Katich continues to bat at his current strike rate and Hussey plays to form, the run rate will automatically dip ( as we saw against India and South Africa).

Cheers,

Krish said...

Homer, that is always a strategy. I am not sure if England would go that way until the lead is near evaporating stage.

Since they reached their centuries, we could see both Katich and Ponting accelerate.

Tifosi Guy said...

Last time I checked, Australia were holding the Ashes after the 5 - 0 whitewash down under. If England play defensive, not sure Aussies would really care too much.

All they want to do is avoid the nightmare of 2005 and go back with the urn safe. So for all 25 days of the series, it's England who have to set the game up. I don't see this England team having that capability.

As for this test - if Ponting and Katich last the first session, it's adios England. Clarke, Hussey, Haddin and Johnson are more than capable of getting a move on to put England under pressure.

And we all know how England performs under pressure. A comment or two about Adelaide 06, and who knows Cardiff 09 might be the new by word :-)

Homer said...

Krish,

It is one of the many options Strauss has to control the tempo of the game.. He can attack or deend as the need arises..

Cheers,

Homer said...

TG,

If Australia want to draw all 5 tests, more power to them - I dont think England will be complaining..

Pressure works both ways - the Prick is not exactly a bastion of calm when things start going south.

Cheers,

Anonymous said...

well nothin of that sort happened mate. the prick;s team went into a lead well before the 2nd session ended...

not everyone have guts of being a dhoni on the field.

i believe you should pass on your blog URL to one of those English journos. they might read ur innovative ideas to irk Prick and get England back in the contention....

an option. try it mate.

Tifosi Guy said...

Homer

I never said Australia WANT to draw all tests, just that if England under the slightest hint of Aus dominance trying stifling tactics, it wouldn't ruffle Aus too much.

Ever since the 06 debacle England have supposedly being building up to this series. So the ONUS is always on them to make all the running.

I repeat, Aus hold the Ashes, and if England aren't inventive and settle for draws under slightest Aus dominance, Aus go back with the Urn.

More than Ponting, looking at how this test has panned out thus far, Strauss is the one with more headaches - both with his main bowlers, and their work load.

Not ONE of them has looked like taking wickets, save for that one 6 over spell from Flintoff.

The second test at Lords starts in 5 days. Guess who has the bigger issues heading there ?

Homer said...

Anonymous,

They are welcome to read the blog if they so choose :)

Cheers,

Homer said...

TG,

Guess who took the defensive option when it was presented to them?

Its a long campaign. Can Australia last the distance?

Cheers,

Tifosi Guy said...

Pray what would have Aus achieved by staying out for another 30 minutes last night ??? I'm just struggling to see your point about being defensive there?

Last night's decision, wasn't the DAFT decision that Hayden/Langer took in Oval 2005, when they came off around tea time. Not quite the same scenario here !

I'm totally flabbergasted at your confidence in this England team. You do seem to have an uncanny knack of pumping up teams who have hope in hell - Mumbai Indians in IPL, and now England in Ashes :-)

It's one thing to have an axe to grind against Ponting and the Aussies, and another to support a pretty hopeless team.

As to Aus lasting the distance - care to tell me how the England bowlers will last the distance.. Some start they had in the Ashes!!

Homer said...

TG,

Time will tell. If you are right, you are more than welcome to rub it in :).

If I am right, it will be one more instance of me putting my money where my mouth is ( after all, the packages don't come cheap on Willow)

Cheers,

Homer said...

TG,

Time will tell. If you are right, you are more than welcome to rub it in :).

If I am right, it will be one more instance of me putting my money where my mouth is ( after all, the packages don't come cheap on Willow)

Cheers,

Tifosi Guy said...

Mate

Why didn't you predict an England draw !! Then I could have relaxed knowing the opposite would happen :-)

Damn irritating to see the England team escape, but it's 0 - 0 and Eng needs a WIN, and can't see this Eng team coming close to doing it.

Homer said...

TG,

Monday, February 16, 2009

http://dopaisekatamasha.blogspot.com/2009/02/on-why-england-will-win-ashes.html

Cheers,