From CricInfo, this
So how does the weather look like tomorrow? Pretty favourable for India. Forecast suggests, rain and scattered thunderstorms by afternoon. High 77F. Winds SW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80%. Rainfall around a half an inch.
Regarding the weather tommorrow, a quick peek at the 10 day forecast following the Jo'burg test would have told anyone that there was scheduled rain for tommorrow.In fact, rain was scheduled for the first 3 and the last day of this test. So the fact that the weather would have a huge bearing on this test was a known factor well before the toss. Add to it the fact that 29 odd days out of 80 odd have been lost at Durban to the weather since 1992.
So if weather does intervene tommorrow,does that necessarily favor India?
The pattern throughout this test has been that the light has faded at around tea or a little past. When light was offered to the South Africa on Day 1, they were 257/8. If play were to have been prolonged, what are the odds that they would have reached 328?
At the end of Day 2 ( when light was offered to the batsmen, Sachin was on 46 and looking ominous. If light were to not intervene, what are the odds of Sachin having converted the 46 into a big one?
When Graeme Smith took the light yesterday,he did so fully aware that it was South Africa that had to do the hard yards as it is they who are 0-1 in the series.
Even today, given the light, given the situation, the Proteas should have declared sooner rather than later. But they chose not to.
If India were to go to tea without having lost anymore wickets and needing about 90 runs in the last session, and light and rain were to intervene, will we still say the weather is favoring India?
Friday, December 29, 2006
On the weather favoring India..
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3 comments:
hey - i was away for winter break. ive been following the games though. hopefully india can bat it out. ntini was bowling well yesterday. i was actually surprised at how long pollock lasted
More than the weather... it's the number of overs that the Indians have to face. All through this tour they've rarely lasted more than 60/70 overs. So bad light/weather in the last session is a factor that India will hope comes into play. But they need to last two whole sessions before that! :)
Sameer, thanks for your comments on my blog.
India lasted 80 overs in thier first essay in Jo'burg, 65 overs in the second.In the dirst innings of the Durban test, India lasted 78 overs
Against RoSA India batted 85 overs before declaring.
So, can the Indians survive? Sure they can.
The question to be asked is that are the South African bowlers prepared to bowl the right lengths to get 8 Indian wickets in the space of 60/70 overs and what is the mindset with which India approach the last day.
Play like in Mumbai against England and we are toast. Play like in Nagpur against England and we should be home safe.
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