Thursday, March 01, 2007

Trend-spotting

Omar did it.Kartikeya does it all the time. So I decided to chime in with my two cents worth on India's ODI record and such like

( All numbers are collated for the Time period Mar 01, 2005 thru Mar 01, 2007)
(P= played
W= won
L = lost
T=tie
NR = no result)

India's Win- Loss ODI record away from Home

P W L T NR
31 12 17 0 2

Break up of the above against individual countries (away)


P W L T NR
v Australia 2 0 1 0 1
v New Zealand 3 1 2 0 0
v Pakistan 7 5 2 0 0
v South Africa 4 0 4 0 0
v Sri Lanka 4 0 3 0 1
v West Indies 9 4 5 0 0
v Zimbabwe 2 2 0 0 0

As can be seen from the above two tables - India has a losing record away from home for the last two years
Also, except Pakistan and Zimbabwe, India has a losing record against all other countries.
( India has not played England outside of India).

Here is the break up of all of India's wins both home and away


Defending
Chasing
1-150

3
151-175 1
1
176-200 1 2
201-225 1 2
226-250 1 4
251-275 2
4
276-300 2
5
301-325


326-350 3

351-400 1






Defending - score set by India
Chasing - Score set by opposition
Here is the breakup of India's wins away


Defending
Chasing
1-150


151-175 1
1
176-200 1
201-225
226-250 1 2
251-275 2
1
276-300

3
301-325


326-350


351-400



Here is the break up of all of India's losses both home and away


Defending Chasing
1-150

151-175

176-200 3 2
201-225 5 1
226-250 4 2
251-275 1 3
276-300 2 1
301-325 2 2
326-350 1

Here is the break up of all of India's losses away


Defending Chasing
1-150

151-175

176-200 2 1
201-225 3 2
226-250 1 2
251-275
2
276-300 1 1
301-325 1
326-350 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  • India has won 33.34% of its games ( both home and away) when setting/chasing a score in the range of 176-250. Significantly India has the same % ( 33.34) while setting/chasing a score in excess of 275.
  • India has won 33.34% of its games ( away) when setting/chasing a score in the range of 176-250.
  • India has lost 58.62% of its games ( both home and away) when setting/ chasing a score in the range of 176-250.
  • India has lost 64.7% of its games (away) when setting/ chasing a score in the range of 176-250.
  • Of the 29 matches India lost between 2005 and 2007 they were unable to complete their innings 14 times.
  • In the range 176-250, of the 15 matches played away from home, India has lost 11 times.
  • In the range 176-250,of the 28 matches played ( both home and away), India has lost 17 times.
The reason the range from 176-250 is highlighted is because - according to every expert there is, matches played in the West Indies will not be high scoring ones.

6 comments:

Kartikeya Date said...

Interesting analysis.... i would point out however that in most of the 17/28 losses in the 176-250 score range, that may not have been the par score. So the defeat would be a consequence of under performance with the bat, or poor bowling effort...

Which is why, when you look at the overall, it makes more sense. It is impossible to decide what the par score is for a particular set of conditions, because that is a function not just of the conditions but also of the relative batting and bowling line ups.

Overall all, the results for Dravid have the reverse of what Ganguly achieved - absolute domination at home, and struggle overseas. All though i should point out that playing SA outside India and SL outside India, which have been Dravid's major bogies, going by that list (you've listed both away and neutral venues as away), India overall are 3-16 v SA in SA (1-3 under Ganguly and 0-2 under Dravid and Sehwag each). Against SL in SL, Ganguly is 2-4, while Dravid is 1-3. Ganguly is 4-4 at neutral venues, while Dravid hasn't lead India v SL at neutral venues.

So numbers are a very slippery area all in all...

But i take your point.. :)

Homer said...

Kartikeya,

Firstly, thanks for your comments :)

The point is simple really...

India has a 11/8 Win loss ratio for scores over 275. Discount 2 games that we lost due to D/L and the number looks even better.

India has a win loss ratio of 11/17 in the score range from 175-250.

inference - On good batting wickets - India will more often than not do well.
On wickets were run scoring is difficult or conditions are more bowler friendly - India is up against it.

I agree with you that "It is impossible to decide what the par score is for a particular set of conditions, because that is a function not just of the conditions but also of the relative batting and bowling line ups."

But it is also true that if you look at the average scores across the grounds in the Carib, they more or less fall in the 176-250 band.
Couple that with the fact that grounds have been relayed and a couple of the grounds are brand new (http://www.hindu.com/2007/03/02/stories/2007030207432200.htm) and all indications are that run scoring may not be all that easy.

The other thing you mentioned was "So the defeat would be a consequence of under performance with the bat, or poor bowling effort" - I would factor in captaincy as well.

I have serious doubts on Rahul Dravid's ability to be on top of the game in ODIs ( something that I have mentioned in previous posts) - and this could be a crucial factor in India's campaign in the WC.

Kartikeya Date said...

True... broadly, i think it is possible to say that India do better in good batting conditions than they do in poor batting conditions - i would however not put it down to the batting, but to the quality of bowling available to India. Barring the West Indies, India always put out weaker bowling line ups than the opposition. If the wicket doesn't seam the pace attack is not potent, because none of them are really tall hit the deck kind of bowlers who are supremely effective in ODI conditions on less than plumb wickets.

India don't do well in the lower scoring games in most instances because Indias bowlers concede above par scores, and India's batsmen consistently face better bowling and superior fielding sides than Indias - which was the whole premise of looking beyond a struggling Ganguly and the sluggish Laxman in the ODI side.

However, what happened, is that the superb fielders didnt deliver well enough with the bat. Hence India have been forced in a sense to fall back on Ganguly.

Rahul Dravid can be on top of the game all he wants, but he wont be able to do a thing if he doesn't have the bowlers who can hit a restrictive length and get reasonable lift from the wicket which would prevent batsmen from planting their foot down and swinging.

Thats why India's best chance is in the run chase, unless theres going to be something for the Indian new ball fielding second, or for the Harbhajan and Kumble fielding second. The risk with that of course is that the opposition runs away with it by going crazy in the slog during the first innings.

This is something that has been pretty much acknowledged by the management and the selectors.

The batting by and large (except for the Raina, Karthik, phase with Dravid in a slump and Tendulkar injured) has always done the job. The 17 consecutive run chases are testimony to this.

Homer said...

I am sorry but I dont get this

"True... broadly, i think it is possible to say that India do better in good batting conditions than they do in poor batting conditions - i would however not put it down to the batting, but to the quality of bowling available to India."

so - India's bowlers actually do better in good batting conditions that better bowling conditions?

Does that not contradict everything else stated afterwards?

Kartikeya Date said...

No... India bowlers don't do better in good batting conditions - India's bowlers seize to be a telling factor in good batting conditions, because it then becomes a straight shoot out between the batsmen of the two teams.

On more challenging wickets, it remains a contest between bat and ball, and thats where our bowlers can't out bowl the opposition.

I realise you could point out that our batsmen are not as good as the opposition batsmen, and hence cope less well with opposition bowlers than opposition batsmen cope with ours.... but i believe that bowlers win cricket matches - batsmen prevent them from being lost, unless the wicket takes the bowlers out of the equation - and this is possible on in limited overs cricket.

In Test cricket, it is always true - bowlers win matches, batsmen prevent them from being lost.

Unknown said...

I missed the last few posts because I was sick and I didn't spot this one...but I'll read this in detail soon!

good job!!