Not even close!

In the last week or so, in the build up to the Border-Gavaskar Trophy, I have read enough opinion pieces ( on websites, newspapers and blogs) that seem to hedge their bets on who will win the Border-Gavaskar Trophy.

The overwhelming consensus seems to be that it will be a close contest and that we should not be reading too much into Australia's performance in the two practice games.

I beg to differ.

There is everything to be read in the performance of a team that, in the lead up to the Champions Trophy in India, had asked for a revised target from Mumbai so as to get more match practice. And on not reaching that revised target, had accepted the result as a defeat.

For a team that prides itself so much in its attention to detail in preparing for a game and plays the game with so much pride, I am surprised people think that the practice games will have no bearing on the Test series at hand.

Remember the huge reams of paper wasted of the impending "demise " of the Fab 4 following their performances in Sri Lanka against a freak of nature and the highest wicket taker in the history of Test cricket?

Contrast that with the Australian first XI who muster 218 runs against an outfit that is not even the Rajasthan Ranji first XI, fall to 218/9 before narrowly avoiding the follow on against a scratch Board President's XI outfit and eked out 127/2 in their second essay at a run rate of 3.34 rpo in a no pressure situation.

Australia come into the series on the back of a 3 match ODI set against Bangladesh at Darwin. The last test match played by them ended in early July.

Their opening pair is a scratch pair, with neither Hayden or Katich partnering each other at the top of the order. Hayden comes in to the first test on the back of an Achilles heel injury that made him hors de combat for the West Indian tour. And not too many runs in the three innings played in the warm up game.

The Prick has had a wrist injury in the lead up to the India series and an average of 12.8 in India. And his IPL performance (39 runs in 4 innings, avg 9.75) has not been too flash either.

And while much has been made of his 50 against the BP XI in the second essay, the fact remains that he barely played Piyush Chawla in the course of that innings.

Australia dont have Damien Martyn. And there is no Andrew Symonds either.

If India's batting is vulnerable ( as everyone seems to point out), what about Australia?

In the bowling department,India is miles ahead in the spin department. And even if South Africa proved that spin may not necessarily be the way forward in India, the Indian pace department is no push over either.

Ishant Sharma, Zaheer Khan and Munaf Patel hit their straps in both the Md Nissar Trophy and the Irani Trophy. And all three exhibited far more rhythm than the 4 Australian pace bowlers on display in the Board President's game.

Pace, bounce and swing - in all three departments the two bowling sides are evenly matched.

Much has also been made of the previous visit by the Australian's to India ( in 2004-05). And of the tactics used. And how we are going to see more of the same.

And it is a valid argument.

But here is what is not mentioned when that particular argument is made

1. Indians are notoriously slow starters. And India was coming into the Border Gavaskar series after a 3 month hiatus with very little domestic cricket in the lead up and a batting lineup devoid of any form.

Which is not the case this time around.

2.India did not have a settled opening pair for the entirety of the series. Yuvraj Singh, Akash Chopra and Gautam Gambhir partnered Virender Sehwag at the top of the order.

Which is not the case this time around.

3. Injuries to key players ( Sachin for the first 2 tests, Saurav for the remaining 2) did not help the cause.

Which is not the case this time around.

4. Remember this? Odds are, we wont have a deja vu.

5. The Australian bowling line up in 2004 consisted of players who had previous experience of playing in India - Glenn Mcgrath (1996, 2001), Jason Gillespie (1996, 1998, 2001), Michael Kasprowicz (1998, 2001) and Shane Warne (1998, 2001). The less said about the current crop's experience, the better.

And despite all this, the score line in 2004 read Australia 2 India 1 with a what-if-the-rains-had-not-intervened match at Chennai.

It is nobodies argument that the Border Gavaskar Trophy wont be a contest - the nature of the game and the temperament of the two sides and past history all point to it.

But, a close contest?