Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Has the empire crumbled?

Plenty of debate on Australia's fortunes following the 2-0 loss against India in India. Plenty of people saying that it is too early to write off the Australians, that India is the toughest place in the cricketing world to tour and that, but for foibles by the selectors and a couple of ill advised captaincy calls, it would have been a whole different story.

All of those arguments hold merit. And while I may not necessarily further the debate, here are my two cents.

The current Australian team ( to India) reads

Ricky Ponting - 33 years
Doug Bollinger - 27 years
Stuart Clark - 33 years
Michael Clarke - 27 years
Brad Haddin - 30 years
Matthew Hayden - 37 years
Michael Hussey - 33 years
Phil Jacques - 29 years
Mitchell Johnson - 27 years
Simon Katich - 33 years
Jason Krejza - 25 years
Brett Lee - 32 years
Shaun Marsh - 25 years
Peter Siddle - 23 years
Shane Watson - 27 years
Cameron White - 25 years
Bryce McGain - 36 years

Adding Shaun Tait, Andrew Symonds, Beau Casson and Ashley Noffke to the mix, we have
Shaun Tait - 25 years
Andrew Symonds - 33 years
Beau Casson - 25 years
Ashley Noffke - 31 years

8 of the 21 players listed above are 32 or older. 7 of the 8 players above the age of 32 are automatic picks for the Test team.

And what this points to is that within the next 3 years, there is going to be another churn in the Australian ranks with player retirements.

Australia are already struggling with life after McGrath, Gilchrist and Warne. And no suitable replacements have been found for Martyn,Langer or Gillespie either.

Nor have the replacements been given a long enough rope to hang themselves ( Beau Casson is a case in point).

And there is really no thought given ( in all the discussions on Australia's supremacy) on the replacements for people like Ponting, Lee, Symonds and Hayden. Nor is there any discussion on what type of cricket the Australains should play in this new environment.

The one characteristic of all the transitions from Border all the way through to Ponting was that the core remained stable - people tapped as replacements for the tried and tested senior pros were playing long enough alongside them to imbibe the team ethic and team philosophy and the team ethos.. And this ensured a seamless handover when the old pros retired

The situation now is different. There is no replacement identified for Ponting. Watson may replace Symonds, but as long as Symonds plays, it will be difficult to justify two all rounders ( unless Australia want to do away with the specialist spinner).

Jacques for Hayden, Rogers for Katich?

Tait for Clark but that means there is really no one to exert control at the other end. And if Symonds and Watson play, there is really no spinner to perform that role. ( which also means that Australia will continue to grapple with over rates, but thats a whole different discussion).

And who comes in for Lee?

Hussey Sr may be replaced by Hussey Jr, but Hussey Jr is not exactly a spring chicken himself.

So, if the 32+ guys get replaced with 30 year olds, we are talking of another churn after another 2-3 years..

And what this means is that the team ethic developed and nurtured by the various teams from Allan Border down to Steve Waugh will be lost..

And that being the case, we are talking of another reconstitution of the team from ground up, with its own ethos.

It is nobody's argument that there is no talent in the Australian domestic scene. The question is, do the selectors have a vision on how they want to bring together this talent?

And does the Australian think tank have clarity in how they want to mould this talent together and how they want to approach their cricket?

Australia is not that far ahead from the rest of the pack now. And the pack is closing in.. And with the next wave of retirements, they may be with the rest of the pack or may fall behind too..

The million dollar question is, will they fall behind the rest of the pack? And if so, by how much?

26 comments:

Soulberry said...

Yes, Australia is a sand dune. However, it still appears like a rock moutain to many. Some voices in Australia are trying to wake up the folks to the danger of shifting sands.

Leela said...

One thing is for sure: the aura of invincibility has faded.

Homer said...

SB,

Indeed.. Australia's bowling resources are thin and while they have the depth to replace the batting, their turn around cycles are such that they will need to start the search over in a 3-4 year span..

Interesting times ahead

Cheers,

Homer said...

Leela,

True..And not just the aura of invincibility - the aura has faded.

Cheers,

Jonathan said...

There's a lot of building to do, and apart from the selectors, I think the one on who it depends is Clarke.

Australia have always had trouble in India, and soem mistakes could havbe been corrected - to my mind the last series in Australia was more significant as a sign of the changing times than this one. I'm not going to try to predict what will happen. There is a challenge ahead for several countries, each with the ability to succeed but not guarantees.

Homer said...

Jonathan,

The warning signs were there in 2003/04 when India visited Australia..

I think the key here is Ponting, not Clarke.

Ponting has publicly stated that he wants to call it quits after the World Cup of 2011 which means that he is Australia's captain for the next 3 years.

And these are the years of transition. Will Ponting take a punt on the 25 year olds, take a couple of hits in the form of lost series and pass on to Clarke a team that is ready and willing or will he take the soft option - of delaying the transition until Clarke takes over as captain and leaving it to Clarke to mold the team in his image.

The course of action taken by Ponting will go a long way in determining how soon Australia can break from the pack. Or whether Australia is content being with the pack as a middling team.

Cheers,

PS- My take - Ponting will play it safe... He has spent his entire career being a part of a hugely successful Australian team and I doubt if he will want to mar his legacy by being the captain under whom Australia slipped a few notches ( although that will serve Australia well in the medium and longer terms).

Oz will continue to play with the tried and tested and when the next churn comes, Clarke will have to do a Border.

Cheers,

Anonymous said...

Homer

I think the issue of an aging Australia has been an issue for some time.

It used to be that Australian cricketers were poorly paid. so after a few years in the test team they would retire to get a "real" job. Paul Sheehan was a classic example of someone who left in his prime.

With Packer & TV pay rates improved & so cricketers could afford to stay plus there was a greater movement of players to the UK for county cricket

Other countries were different (there weren't that many test playing countries anyway). For a start they didn't play as many tests or in the case of England
had the county system

With players staying in the national team, longer it meant that Sheffield aged as well. Also national players now rarely play in the domestic competition

All this adds up to make cricket a less attractive option particularly when AFL, Rugby, League & union & soccer offer career paths.

I think this is one area where the IPL will help Australia regenerate. The way I see it there will be two classes of beneficiaies as far as Australian teams go.

Firtsly will be the emerging players (eg Shaun Marsh).This will help players hanga round in the game

The second group will be senior players who might quit early to get a few good seasons of IPL in before they lose it entirely. (this will help domestic cricket as they may play to stay fit & in form)

With players leaving early places will open up for the young mature players so they won't have to wait as long as a Mike Hussey.This will also help keep them in the game.

Basicaly I see the career path as
Young & emerging + domestic (for tyhe skills) + IPL for the $$$$$$$$

Mature = National team te establish their cricket rep and play the World Cup to become legends

Nearing retirement = IPL for $$$$$ & a bit of domestic to stay fit for IPL

IPL is going to have an impact in way & in effect we have yet to imagine.

I suspect there will be a super league & inter national clubs

Whilst being a lover of test cricket & wanting it to endure I fear for its future.

I do not regard test cricket as tradional cricket. It is actuall the hybrid.

I would suggest that 90% of all cricket is limited over of some sort.

Most cricketer have never played more than two days in a row.

The Pav

Homer said...

The Pav,

With respect to the IPL. I think things will be a little more involved.

When Australia dominated the world, everything Australian was vogue.. Australian coaches, Australia style academies,Australian rates of batting, even Australian selectors ( Rod Marsh).

With Australia getting back to the pack, the "Australia or bust" phase will also fade.

Which means that Australian domestic players wont be automatic second choices ( after International players) for the IPL teams.

Also, retired or semi retired players was the need of the hour for a competition trying to establish itself.. It was about names and brands - get the marquee players signed up and odds are that the crowds would watch.. With establishing its credentials no longer the the moot point, IPL teams will be a lot more discerning about the choices they make.

Also, with the money in the game ( IPL championship, Champions League, teams going public etc) teams will vie for the best talent available, not just marquee names.. So, an Adam Gilchrist could retire at 36 in the first year of the IPL but I will be very surprised if he could pull it off in its 5th.

So, unless Australia continues its primacy in World Cricket, I dont envisage Australian players to be major drawcards in the IPL.

What I can visualize is Australian players doing their best to win the KFC Twenty20 to book a passage to the Champions League and then players performing as individuals to get the attention of IPL scouts.

Also, per Justin Langer, the English county season this year has been the most intense he has seen. The Indian domestic season over the last two years has been extremely competitive. South Africa has a robust domestic calender. The West Indies, thanks to Stanford, are another feeder channel for the IPL.

So, there are alternates that IPL teams can look to in the next 3 odd years for players.

Which brings me to the moot point - what gives for the current Australian team? Will they bite the bullet, bring in the 25 year olds, take a few setbacks in their stride and work towards establishing themselves as the world's best team ( the longer term fix) or will they try to hang on to the number 1 spot by persisting with the tried and tested ( the near term fix)?

Ricky Ponting is the key to that answer..

Cheers,

straight point said...

frightening stuff...if i was oz fan...

but as indian fan too...i want strong oz to beat... ;-)

Homer said...

SP,

Me too.But I think Perth was the last great contest we have seen in the B-G Trophy.

Cheers,

Anonymous said...

Valid & thoughtful stuff, Homer

I certainly don't think & didn't mean to imply that the preponderance of Australian Cricketers will continue although they will be a continuing significant factor

It also continues my theme that the IPL will affect cricket in ways we cannot yet imagine.

I suspect that international names will always be a currency for the IPL & that includes credentialled Australian players.I think the seasonal timing will have an impact on who plays. Domestic boards will look to protect their product with contracts much as the ACB did during Packers.

Spectators will want to see the best Indian players mixing it with the rest.

The other thing is IPL will be creating a m,arket for other T20 contests.Just for instance perhaps the KFCT20 will gain greater currency in India. In that case I am positive we will see Indian cricketers active in the competition.

Will there then be a series or circuit involvinfg the SAFFERS, Aust. SL & India. On a club basis with players from all nations in each team telecast all over. A sort of T20 version of the Super 14's. Where do the Kiwi's fit in?

Does it keep Pakistani players involved

Given the speed of the game & capacity of air travel & satellite TV the options are endless & the need for product (ie new exciting players from anywhere) is endless.

What if the Chinese start getting into cricket. The commercial opportunities are bound to interest that nation.


IPL is a great step forward & priase to the BCCI for kicking it off but now its out there we need to think even bigger.

Test Cricket will survive ( perhaps) but 50/50 I reckon is in bigger trouble.

As to your last point about future selections. Personally I think the selectors not Ponting will make the hard calls ( just ask Healy althiough the selction of Symonds beggars belief) As long as they keep Haddin for a few more years (say three).

Declaration of Interest. I don't think Haddin is that good & if they drop him somebody else (young) might get & keep the job for a long time therefore getting in the way of #2 son who will be in the zone in about three years (form & fitness permitting)


Cheers

The Pav

Anonymous said...

Good argument Homer and also everyone's take in the comments.

But then this is what has traditionally happened for over a decade and the juggernaut rolled on.

That's the way they hook things up... on a three year perspective.

Another question, does the selectors have a rotation policy in terms of holding office. That may hold the key.

Anonymous said...

There is one more "aspect" to the "rebuilding of the aussie team" - they have a certain "Guru" in the Australian Cricket Academy these days.

Q said...

Interesting observation Homer but I do feel that Langer (Jacques/Katich), Martyn (Hussey), and Gillespie (Clark / Johnson) have been replaced appropriately.

McGrath, Warne, and Gilchrist are once in a lifetime players and just like Vi Richards, Imran Khan, Miandad, Sachin Tendulkar they will never be able to be replaced.

The talent at the domestic level is pretty good. Second only to India I believe.

Australia is not as strong as it used to be but its not all that weak either. Its lost only to India, a team it lost to before as well when all those retired players were at their peak.

So even though they have been beaten by the Indians, the are easiy better than the other teams and have more talent than any of the other teams.

India is probably the best team in the world today and Australia only behind them but above the rest.

Q said...

Interesting observation Homer but I do feel that Langer (Jacques/Katich), Martyn (Hussey), and Gillespie (Clark / Johnson) have been replaced appropriately.

McGrath, Warne, and Gilchrist are once in a lifetime players and just like Vi Richards, Imran Khan, Miandad, Sachin Tendulkar they will never be able to be replaced.

The talent at the domestic level is pretty good. Second only to India I believe.

Australia is not as strong as it used to be but its not all that weak either. Its lost only to India, a team it lost to before as well when all those retired players were at their peak.

So even though they have been beaten by the Indians, the are easiy better than the other teams and have more talent than any of the other teams.

India is probably the best team in the world today and Australia only behind them but above the rest.

Homer said...

The Pav,

I hope for your sake that Haddin keeps the job as Australia wicket keeper. And I hope, for our sake that I get to see The Pav Jr in IPL action soon :).

About the IPL, I think the fact that we have corporate entities owning the franchises is going to alter the dynamics as we know them...


With the IPL consolidating itself, I wont be too surprised if the various franchises have their scouts searching for talent across various geographies.. I also think ( am pretty sure) that with the rise of the IPL, Cricket Boards and the ICC will become redundant as the feeder systems will have a very different look ( I wont be too surprised if we have a replica of Baseball style farm systems in the next decade).

About the Aussie team, I had stated when India was in Australia that Australia needed Buchanan to continue as coach, if only to temper the Pricks irrational exuberance.. Tim Nielson does not have the gravitas to stand up to the captain and neither does Hilditch - the fear being that if Ponting calls it quits, Clarke is not ready to lead yet and Australia will lose its best batsman.

Cheers,

Homer said...

Scorpi,

For the last 15 years, Australia had the best slip cordon in business.

And our trip Down Under and the reciprocal trip by Oz to India showed that those standards are slipping.

Once Hayden retires, there is no slip cordon to talk of.

And it is just one of the many problems that will prevent the juggernaut from rolling.

As regards the selectors being rotated, The Pav will be better positioned to answer that question...

Cheers,

Homer said...

Naresh,

Dunno how that will pan out.. There is already some disquiet in Rajasthan with Ian Frazer being shown the door..

Cheers,

Homer said...

Q,

Frankly, I dont think the loss mattered.Like you pointed out, better Australian teams have lost to India in India..

I think it was telling that for all the backroom planning and preparation the Australians are famous for, they were out thought by India. And that is a big worry..

The Aussie domestic structure is strong but take it from an Indian, having classy players does not a team make ( although it helps!).

Also,India is not the best team in the world.. yet.

We have good bowling depth and fairly decent batting but there is someways to go before we become a "no quarter given, no quarter asked for" unit.

But, given the age of the squad, it is more a matter of when than if.

Cheers,

Q said...

Homer, the fact that India out thought the Aussies is not a worry IMO.

Just like the Ashes in 05 this is probably just another blip in the Aussies' fortune.

I really don't see Australia losing to the Kiwis or the Safrikaans or to any other team at home or away (besides India).

Homer said...

Q,

This season will answer those questions..

If NZ ambush Australia on the first day at Brisbane, the cookie will finally have crumbled..

Cheers,

Sailesh Ganesh said...

That man with integrity speaketh. It just keeps getting funnier.

Homer said...

Sailesh,

Given all the hats Ponting wears ( including his brand new hair hat) is it any wonder that the man is so screwed in the head?

And if that was not bad enough, he has Greg Chappell explaining to him the role of those multiple hats and which hat to wear at what time...

Cheers,

Sailesh Ganesh said...

It gets better. Vettori now calls Ponting a bad-ass on the field. I wonder how betrayed Ponting feels now that a white dude has spoken out against his on-field behaviour!

Homer said...

Sailesh,

Given his penchant for looking at things backwards, he probably took it as a compliment :)

Cheers,

YellowMonkey said...

I think one of the problems is that Australia worry too much about past history of not winning for 35 years! But they only played in 16 Tests in India in that time. And nine of these came in 1979-80 (Hughes's WSC-depleted team) and Border in 1986, both unrepresentative of Australia's strength

http://yellowmonkeysbananabucket.blogspot.com/2008/11/final-frontier-not-as-elusive-as-it.html

This team is weak, and the result is a fair one, but Australians get too negative about campaigns in India