1. Ricky Ponting's reverse reverse psycho-babble - A cursory glance at the articles written by Ponting suggests a very confused mind at work - "New age cricket" versus India, "all the pressure on South Africa because they are trying to be #1" - and it shows on the cricket field- in the field settings and the bowlers reactions.
2. Fast Bowling depth - England have Flintoff, Anderson, Harmison, Tremlett, Sidebottom, Mehmood, Plunkett. Australia have Johnson, Lee, Clark, Siddle, Bollinger.
3. Spin Bowling depth - Rashid, Panesar, Swann. Mcgain. Enough said.
4. Lee and Clark will be coming of injuries and because of that, a lack of match practise.
5. Match practise - Between March 23rd and July 8th, Australia play precisely 0 test matches. In the same time frame, England play the Wet Indies for a 2 Test home series. The lack of match practise showed when Australia toured India. No reason why it should not manifest itself again.
6. Home field advantage - Disarray or not, England are playing at home. Which is as good a reason as any to close ranks.And Australia are in a tailspin. A series loss against South Africa will increase the pressure on Ricky Ponting. Which plays into the hands of the English.
7. Because it is the Ashes - England live and die by it.. The end of every Ashes tour is the beginning of planning for the next. No other tour/series comes close to the Ashes hype.And because. like 2005, England genuinely expect. And unlike 2005, Australia is weaker ( no Warne, no McGrath, no Gilchrist, a new opening batting pair, a new ball attack with little exposure to English conditions, a bowling attack with little exposure to English conditions, a batting line up low on confidence).
Monday, February 16, 2009
On why England will win the Ashes
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25 comments:
oz lose badly to saf, ricky resigns, and by default, ricky the madman batsman returns.
more likely than that tho is like duminy, oz plays a wildcard that comes off.
but even more likey than that is oz scrap and win.
it's gonna be a very ugly ashes. what fun.
NC,
Ricky wont resign. And if he does, the chances of him playing under Clarke are low.
It will be an ungly Ashes, but not a close one..
Cheers,
Tremlett, Plunkett, Mahmood? Please tell me you're not serious, even as bench strength thats not something too many people would be boasting about, and lets not forget they might rather bring Pattinson back ahead of that lot. A pity Hoggard's been treated so poorly. But point taken about depth, I honestly thought that Sidebottom, Flintoff and an in-form Harmison would have been enough, but it looks like Hussey's back in form, so I'd rather wait and see how much of an impact Hughes will have before making a judgement. I also think Broad is a decent test bowler when he's not getting tonked by Yuvraj for sixes.
Australia also have Hilfenhaus and Tait, though we're not sure if the latter has recovered from "mental stress" problems or has the stamina to bowl more than two overs in a spell. Should do their over rates wonders.
If Lee and Clark get into decent form, then it might be a little exciting. But even if they don't, it will almost always be a case of England getting themselves out and losing the trophy rather than Australia bowling them out and winning.
All said a line-up with Katich, Ponting, Hussey, Clarke will always look good, I'm not sure Bonnie McDonald is a good choice at all, so a lot will depend on whether they play Voges ahead of him, and of course as I said before on whether Hughes comes good. England's lineup looks really strong on this featherbed.
Achettup,
In English conditons, why not? I mean, if Hilfenhaus and Tait can be considered, surely Trmelett and Plunkett deserve the same.
And even otherwise, Flintoff, Sidebottom, Anderson, Harmison and Braod present a mouth watering array of options.
And for all of Hussey's form, Australia has yet to work out swing - conventional and reverse.Whenever the bowlers have had it going, Australia have faltered.
Also, whole different ball game to play when you know you have Symonds and Gilchrist coming in after you versus having everything hinging on you.
And England do attrition better than Australia.
It will be 1-0 or 2-0 at best, with lots of very boring sessions, but England will put this one across Australia.
Cheers,
Lee and Clark will be coming of injuries and because of that, a lack of match practice. don't count on them to be bad...
NC is right - this is going to be the ugly ashes....I am going to love it..
please change the URL of the free hit in your blogroll from the blogspot one to this one...
Ankit,
to which one?
Cheers,
to http://thefreehit.com
Homer, too early to predict. Let's see how South Africa goes.
Ricky Ponting has a history of redemption. Alcohol problems - redemption to the point of taking captaincy
Ashes Loss - spectacular redemption with 5-0
So, I rather think he might avenge the loss to SA at home by beating SA at their home. And add icing to the cake by doing what he couldnt do in England last time.
Like you say, losses in this series might mean the end of his career. From a cricketing history POV, I cant see that happening. He seems to be destined to end his career as the top run aggregator in test history and top century aggregator in test history. None of these are sound cricketing logic, I agree. But my instinct is atleast one of the two impending series for Australia, either the SA test series in SA or the England test series in England. I think atleast one will be won by Oz, if not both, and Ricky will go on to eclipse Sachin in individual career aggregate run scoring stakes!
the oz line-up appears bit fragile against good seam and swing bowling and if england keep flintoff fit...harmison interested and side bottom's up...i think oz are in for testing time there...
i agree with NC that it can be the ugliest ashes where umps and referees will be tested even more...
Talking of "Hussey's form" - he's scored runs against NZ. That's a bit different from SA. Lee got wickets against NZ too. So let's see how that pans out.
Overall - a lot to look forward to with "my favorite cricket team". :)
Raj,
Thats the whole thing about predicting - it is never too early.. :)
Redemption or not, the challenges Ricky POnting faces now are very different to the challenges he faced when he was younger.
Alcohol was a personal battle. The Ashes win was personal redemption. Both of which are possible when you have a team like the Australians did until now.
Now, Ricky Ponting has Sachin Tendulkar's responsibilities from the 90s while he remains trapped in Sachin Tendulkar's body from the 2000s. His wrist has not completely healed and that is impeding his run making.
He is the batting bulwark of the side and that adds the pressure on his batting.
He may or may not eclipse Sachin's records - that depends on how long he and Sachin continue to play the game.
About the SA series and the Ashes, I dont see how Australia can win - a team that cannot defend 400 plus in the 4th innings at Perth and one that allows a team tottering at 196/7 to score in excess of 400 will have a hard time winning anything.
And let us also not forget that an inexperienced NZ team stretched Australia at home.
Cheers,
SP,
expecting to see more "if you question my integrity..." ?
Cheers,
lol Naresh :)
Out of English pace attack you mentioned it wud be good to see how many stand fit till Ashes begin ?
Mehmood, Plunkett,Tremlett are pedestrians !!
And who knows this cud be 1995-96 for Aussies and they wud usher a new bowling star like Pidge :)
Rashid is yet to make a debut. Swann is okish, better may be. Panesar is dropped n is no longer a force he was.
Oz batting still looks strong...Ponting, Clarke, Huss, Katich, Hughes and Haddin sounds thicker than English lineup who at best have Strauss and KP (we know his high ego:)) world class batsmen...rest are there but they fight their own demons!!
so its 3-1 or 3-2 to Aussies
Naresh,
Believe it or not, but you can make out whether a batsman is in form from the way he strikes the ball. Hussey was in woeful form all the way upto the 2nd or 3rd ODI, he scored an extremely scratchy 50 against NZ in an earlier match. Lets see if your opinion of those kiwi bowlers changes when they peg India on the backfoot in the upcoming series... they're really not that bad... its the batsmen who have let the kiwis more than anyone. I'm so confident that Hussey's gonna do well in the series that I'll give you odds of 1-15 that he will end up with much better figures than he had for the series at home. Let me know how much you're willing to put down, minimum bid is $100.
Sam_2,
Hughes is yet to make his debut.. Haddin has 3 test series and one Test 100.
Katich dd not exactly set the Thanes alight the last time he was in England. Ditto Clarke.
And when it comes to bowling matchups, England have a distinct advantage.
Cheers,
Achettup,
Hussey to score more in England than in the home series against SA and NZ?
190 runs in 9 innings at home - he scores 20 runs each time he goes out to bat in England( and assuming he bats all 10 innings), he will still have bettered his home record. :)
Cheers,
lol Homer, actually I was making an even worse case: Hussey does better in SA than he did against them at home: 85 runs @ 17.
Hence the high odds :D
lol Achettup :)
Cheers,
Achettup,
Regarding Hussey striking the ball well - I did not see any of the games :):):) Now then, you need to go beyond "armchair critic" to describe me. :)
But in general, SA are a better bowling AND batting unit than NZ - especially in tests - which is what comes up first(?). So I still say - let's see how Huss goes there. A LOT depends on how the top three do - if Hussey comes in at 200 for 3, he will do much better than if he shows up at 100 for 3. Most of his career he has been coming in at 300 for 3 - after the opposition was done in for < 300 by Warne, McGrath - which is why I believe the guy had scored so much so far.
And since I never said "HUSSEY WILL FAIL" - no thanks, I taking no bets with nobody.
As for the NZ attack v/s India: Hamaere pas Sehwag hai.
I read somehwere that "bookies would not fix a match till Sachin was batting" - well, these days nobody can say nothing till Sehwag is around.
(no technical stuff up there - but I am too old for that, and we are talking Sehwag here).
Cheers.
"Haddin has 3 test series and one Test 100."
Hasn't he played 4 test series: WI, India, NZ and SA?
Thanks Chandan.. I stand corrected.
Cheers,
Its a shame i dint get to read this post earlier, but now its a funny read really.. The Poms couldn win a single test in the Windies wit that all Star Bowling line up u hv praised time n again !
Their batting has been the show stealer with that *51* I don't know how they r going to get a magic portion to win at home against one of the best sides currently playin. [not the best] M sure the SAF tour will show u Ozzy Magic isn done yet.. even without Haydos,Gilly,Warne,Pigeon they will easily lift the Ashes! They dont seem to have much of a competition in that case.
And I see Symo returnin to the side for the Ashes whether or not he Kills someone in that phase. The team looks pretty balanced, does surely have inexperience,new faces.. but this is the time to face the music. they are as strong as those i hv already listed out.. but surely the OZZY enuf to beat the Poms once *again* at Home!
they are *not* as strong as those i hv already listed out..
dokaudikablog,
For precisely the reasons you have mentioned, I believe England is better suited to win back the Ashes.
Symonds has shown no form for the last year, the Australian bowling is raw and while it may be bolstered by the presence of Lee and Clark, both are coming off injuries.
Anyways, we will know, in good time.
Thanks for your comments and welcome to the blog.
Cheers,
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