If I was India captain, here is how I would like tomorrows day to unfold-
India needs to push its overall lead to at least 300.
India bats new ball to new ball. India needs to set stall for 80 overs tomorrow and score at around 3.5 -4.0 runs an over.
This will give us around 280-320 runs for the day which, coupled with the 56 run lead India has in the bad already, pushes the overall lead to 336-376 runs.
If India is not all out in this 80 over span, I would expect India to declare and let our bowlers get around 8 overs at th England batsmen.
The 300 plus run cushion will allow India to attack right through the English innings. And even if the English play out of their collective skins, barring for rain, India will not have too stiff a target to chase in the 4th innings.
And the declaration will give India the better part of 6.25 sessions to get 10 English wickets.
If rain is a factor, we have time. If rain is not a factor, England will have to front up on an increasing wearing pitch.
Our approach tomorrow will determine whether we go to the Oval all square or 1-0 up.
The ball is in India's court.
Saturday, July 28, 2007
Test 2 Day 2 - Looking ahead
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13 comments:
A lot depends on rains and then on ganguly-tendulkar combo. If they put up a good partnership and with Laxman making a good contri, then Dhoni can hit few quick runs and achieve the target for India -- 250+ runs lead.
Having done that, India would either need not bat 2nd time or else would need to chase a small target.
But much depends on how Tendulkar carries on from here
Rain is an unlikely factor according to BBC sports weather for Nottingham. Tomorrow could be cloudy though with fair, sunny weather on later days.
The stiff breeze helps swing, but along with the bright sun will wipe the moisture off the pitch in the second half of the day. Thus, the first half of each day are important.
Tomorrow, India must play out the first half and then kick on to at least a 300 lead.
Bolwers from both sides have relied heavily on the conditions to help them. With this pitch likely to ease up as the match progresses and in the second half of each day, the Indian bowlers will have to find and summon an original quality from within in addition to the available conditions. The bowling is no longer insurmountable in the second part of the day for a batsman who is set. So a 150 lead may not earn India a victory.
Then, with the groundwater levels high this season dur to the nearby river in full-spate, the pitch is "freshened" through the night and will hold up - it will not crack like it did for Murali last year or James Kirtley earlier. So Kumble, who will have to be taking the lead if the swingers do not find the conditions helpful, may also be neutralized a bit.
It is here I find that Sreesanth has to step forward and bring out that magical South African form of his...for he could matter with his pace where swingers may not.
This match hinges on - 1) the pressure of a big lead 2) Sreesanth's form 3) Kumble finding his magic as well.
I guess India will have to begin with the first tomorrow....a crucial first session.
The link to BBC's five day forecast for Nottingham
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?id=2803
superunknown/soulberry,
Here was Prem Panicker's take on the wicket towards the end of the days play yesterday
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On another note, I may be seeing things, but when they showed the top down view of that Kumble wicket just now, see the very dark spots on full length at either end? Which would be where the bowler’s footmarks land?
Patches that pronounced this early indicate a soft underbelly for the pitch; if the sun stays out all day tomorrow and bakes this deck, watch for it to turn with increasing viciousness as the game gets into days four and five.
The only factor that can negate it is if the composition of the pitch is such it slows down—but I suspect that is not the case here.
Bottomline? You really don’t want to be chasing too much in the fourth; bat big in the first innings is the only real game in town
Posted by Prem on 07/27 at 10:22 PM
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If the sun stays out, and the wicket plays the way Prem has analyzed, and there is variable bounce as stated by the Sky commentators, Ani Kumble will be a huge factor in the England second innings.
Who's Prem Panicker? some thinker of the game is it?
because I remember reading some utter rubbish on this site (as in Prem's site)once.. vowed never to go back there
Regarding the state of the game, with 4 specialist batters left and the tail virtually non performing, think it's too optimistic to look for a lead of 300+.. I think 150+ should be ok.. if that doesn't negate us batting last, then well we don't deserve to win..
Indians have a penchant of making things interesting..
As a captain my ideal day would be to make 500 in a day, get the opposition all out for 100 and make them follow on.. doesnt usually happen that way, untill you are Ricky Ponting..
The English bolwers bowled badly today and if they get their bowling areas correct with a new ball in the morning tomorrow, its not going to be easy.. Will we still berate our batters because the POMS showed exactly how well THEY play the swinging ball (which are their home conditions)..
I hope Rahul's ideal day does materialise on Sunday but as Holmes has said "its possible but not probable" or is it vice versa..
Andrew Miller at Trent Bridge
July 28, 2007
The scent of victory seems to have whetted Sachin Tendulkar's competitive juices © Getty Images
For England, it was a day of long, hard and fruitless toil; for India, a day of consolidation rather than conquest. By the end of it, however, there was no question where the momentum of the series was headed. Aside from a hard-earned victory over West Indies last June, and the obligatory dismissal of Zimbabwe in 2005, India have not won a Test series outside the subcontinent since their tour of England in 1986. Now, however, they are three good days away from the MOST IMPROBABLE of series leads, and with just the Oval Test to come next week, England's failure to close down the Lord's Test grows more acute by the minute
http://ind.cricinfo.com/ci/content/current/story/304133.html
Well take a look at these 2 articles - one by an Englishman and one by an Indian.. Difficult to figure out who's who..
For ages India has been at the receiving end of poor umpiring decisions at CRUNCH TIME.. freakish catches being taken off an Indian batter etc, rub of the green not going our way.. The one day (match) that we have some luck in our favor - articles are written about it by Sambit Bal.. Thank you Mr. Bal
Homer..Homer..Homer..
Please calm down! A lead of 300 to 320 runs??? You mean to say that batsmen on the crease+Laxman+Dhoni can score 270 MORE runs????
Please be realistic! The conditions are not of what we had at Lahore last year. The ball is swinging, odd ball is keeping low while some bounces out of the blue.
In those conditions, our batsmen are not supermen to score that many runs!!
In Homer's Defence:
India's chances of scoring 500 from this point are definitely better than their chances of scoring 400 when they were 0/0. And one does expect Tendulkar and Ganguly to display their collective magic once in a while! Come to think of it, it ain't all that difficult - just that our batting has failed overseas so often that we refuse to believe that it's possible.
ps: i did the maths. homer might just do it, and even if he does fail, it won't be by a big margin.
Chandan, the lead is 283 runs, 17 short of 300 runs. Request you to work out on your optimism and analytical skills a bit.
Now dont blame luck to be on India s side to have them scored 481 runs on a pitch with variable bounce and swing yet coming in picture.
Had there not been umpiring blunders from Taufel, the lead would have been more than 300. But i guess you would find some more pessimism in this situation too.
Tough tough
Well homer, looks like you got all you asked for pretty much :). Now its up to the bowlers to get their act together and make sure that we don't lose this excellent opportunity to win this test match.
Vinod,
So far, so good.
India needs to be patient on the 4th day. Our biggest headache is Sreesanth and it is imperative that even if he is not bowling all out or remotely close to his efforts in South Africa, he does his bit as part of the bowling unit.
If he leaks runs when the remaining three bowlers are upping the pressure, India will have a long long day on the field tomorrow.
However, if we keep the runs down ( RR anything between 2.5 and 3.0 RPO), England will, at the end of the day, stand at anything from 268 to 313 runs .
Also, the inability to score freely or briskly will see wickets tumble. There is only so much blocking you can do against Kumble before he gets you. And every wicket that falls will be another nail in the English coffin.
Patience then, is the watchword for tomorrow's play.
Cheers
Point taken, Superunknown!!:)
I'm extremely happy to be proved wrong by our batsmen.
Hope Homer is correct in today's prection too!::
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