It should have been this, and shown up here, but didn't. So here goes.
Sunday, August 23, 2009
2-1 England and a prediction, revisited!
On why England will win the Ashes
1. Ricky Ponting's reverse reverse psycho-babble
Starting from questioning the schedule pre Cardiff through to questioning Jonathan Trott's place before the Oval Test, the Prick had an opinion on everything.
2. Fast Bowling depth
3. Spin Bowling depth
Two stats
Number of 5+ wickets in an innings
England - 4
Australia - 2
Number of times the side took 20 wickets
England - 2
Australia - 1
So, despite taking 84 wickets to 71, Australia's inability to take 20 wickets in a game cost them. And while England could call on Harmison and Onions from the bench, Australia had no fall back. And Australia's inability to get thier bowling order right ( except for Headingley) cost them.
4. Lee and Clark will be coming of injuries
Lee never played a test. Nuff said!
5. Match practice -
England were outplayed. Just look at the stats. And yet, when the big moments came, it was England that was able to put one over the Australians. There is merit in playing the West Indies in Tests, however weak the opposition. And there is virtue in lasting beyond the first week in the World T20 competition. England were pushed in the T20 Cup, and thus tested. Australia werent.
Therein lies the difference.
6. Home field advantage - Ask Malcolm Conn!
7. Because it is the Ashes
And it showed!
Truth be told, I am glad its over.. A dull series enlivened by the propensity of both teams to out do each other in the ineptness stakes.. So unlike 2005.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
The problem with WADA
Many South African officials are still wary of speaking on the issue, given that it involves the powerful IPL, but the belief that Steyn was shabbily treated is clearly widespread. "He took a common headache medicine - Myprodol - containing codeine, which is not a prohibited substance. In certain people codeine can cause a high concentration of morphine in the urine. Anyone who has laboratory experience in analysing this situation knows that a slightly higher presence of morphine than otherwise permitted is totally acceptable where there is also this level of codeine," one CSA official said.
( A few days ago, I had an debate with Raja Bharadwaj on BCC! - here)
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
The ACSU makes its case
The Australian team management has filed a report with the ICC's Anti-Corruption and Security Unit after a player was approached by a man suspected of links to illegal bookmaking. Cricinfo has learned the approach was made in the bar of the team's London hotel, the Royal Kensington Garden, following Australia's Ashes defeat at Lord's in July.So let me understand this
- There is a lot od chatter and rumor about the integrity of the IPL hosted in South Africa. Sufficient enough for the ACSU and, in turn the ICC, to be concerned.
- Logic would dictate that more stringent measures would be put in place given the ICC concerns and the fact that it is a World Cup. But no, there is a report of players being approached by bookmakers during the World Twenty20 held in England.
- Such things happen, but surely there is now a water tight case for the ACSU to put together measures to "provide a professional, permanent and secure infrastructure to act as a long term deterrent to conduct of a corrupt nature prejudicial to the interests of the game of cricket."
- And yet, after the Lords Test, there is the report that an Australia player was approached by a bookie. In the team hotel no less.
Monday, August 17, 2009
How effective is the ACSU?
"We are aware of a number of approaches that were made to key players during the tournament, and they were reported to the Anti Corruption and Security Unit. We were provided with very helpful information," said the source, who added that none of the ICC Twenty20 matches had been fixed.writes Scyld Berry.
"We didn't cover it [the second IPL] but, in terms of intelligence, the volume of rumours and noises raised concerns about its integrity. One of the most significant rumours was that a bookmaker seemed to have a surprising access to the players," the source said. "The second IPL should have been covered properly, and cricket has paid a price. It was a wake-up call that the game has taken too long to respond to."So lets understand this
- The ICC deems the IPL a domestic event and therefore cannot be granted a window, so what is the jurisdiction of any of the ICC affiliated bodies over a "domestic event" ?
I recruit an organization to implement a certain project. They provide consultants for the job, requiring me to hire a whole new set of people to implement the project. So far so good.So much for cricket paying the price. Anywho, the point of of creating the ACSU, per the ICC website is
Then those consultants, and the people hired for the implementation, are a bit too over zealous with their tasks. ( Shahrukh not allowed in the KKR dug out!)Again, so far so good.
Then the head of the consulting firm bad mouths the project after the implementation despite me ceding control to his organization to oversee the said project.
Then, when I have to implement the same project all over again this year, the consulting firm quotes an exorbitant price for its services.
ANTI-CORRUPTION
- To assist the ICC Code of Conduct Commission ('the Commission') and the Members of ICC in the eradication of conduct of a corrupt nature prejudicial to the interests of the game of cricket; and to provide a professional, permanent and secure infrastructure to act as a long term deterrent to conduct of a corrupt nature prejudicial to the interests of the game of cricket.
- To evaluate safety and security assessments and intelligence in order to provide advice to the ICC Chief Executive and/or the Executive Board of the ICC ('the Executive Board') in relation to: (a) any event or competition organised by the ICC; and (b) the provision of match officials for FTP commitments
And given that the IPL is deemed a "domestic event" by the ICC, what is the locus standi of the ACSU given that its brief is "To evaluate safety and security assessments and intelligence in order to provide advice to the ICC Chief Executive and/or the Executive Board of the ICC ('the Executive Board') in relation to: (a) any event or competition organised by the ICC; and (b) the provision of match officials for FTP commitments "?
Isn't the "senior source at the International Cricket Council." protesting too much?And what is the ICC doing about such unsolicited leaks?
And what about the ACSU itself - other than being another level of bureaucracy in an already over crowded bureaucracy that is the ICC, how effective is it exactly ( other than arriving at the scene of the supposed crime after the fact, in true police fashion)?
PS:- "In keeping with ACSU protocols, no specifics will be discussed in relation to the investigation and no further comment will be made." - which begs the question - What action is the ICC going to take against the "senior source at the International Cricket Council."?
Friday, August 14, 2009
And the beat goes on... flip flop flip....
Yesterday it was
Today it is''It's for our government to decide about it,'' he said.
Based on his utterences, Ijaz Butt makes a solid case for administrators to be included in the WADA regime!
The last post
Because I cannot be bothered anymore.
What point pontificating about the game when the outcome of a marquee series can be predicted so far in advance?
What point talking about the nuances and the vagaries of the game when the only nuance is the pitch being rolled twice instead of thrice and the only vagary is the wicket having four blades of grass instead of one?
Test Cricket is a joke, with anodyne wickets rolled out and semi skilled batsmen piling on runs like there is no tomorrow. And while it may provide enjoyment to some, I want no part of it.
"It's a fact of life that cricket can only survive and grow through finance, and much of that finance comes from revenue generated by broadcast and sponsorship revenue and attendances. So if matches don't run the distance, that can hit clubs and boards in the pocket."When the ICC pitches manager makes the above comments with a straight face, no amount of pink balls and day night cricket and other fancy gimmicks is going to revive the game.
"The ICC has not issued any such directive since my involvement with it began in 1999. It is also incorrect to say that the ICC wants to standardise pitches worldwide. Nothing is further from the truth. The preparation of pitches for all Test matches and ODIs is a matter entirely for each individual home board to manage when they are staging a match or a series under their control. "
And thats fine by me.
I am content watching ODIs. Or Twenty 20 cricket. Because atleast then the expectations are clear - flat wicket, bowler's graveyard, batsmen swinging across the line. And the monotony lasts a few hours, not a few days.
When I first started analyzing Test series, it was in early 2003. India was to tour Australia and the Willow package cost $149.99. And conventional wisdom was that India would repeat its 1999 showing, if not a 4-0 mauling. With 150 bucks on the line, a cost benefit exercise was necessary. And I went ahead and bought the package, hoping against hope that India would turn out a credible performance and not get humiliated. They did better that expected.
By the time the South Africa series came around, it was much easier. It was simply a question of juxtaposing the strength of schedule, quality wins and player match ups. Because player match ups mattered then.
Shiraz prices led to an assessment of how India would fare in Australia but by the time the return series happened, the assessment was not even a challenge.
Ditto the South Africa tour to Australia. And now, the Ashes.
The one that got away was the return series in South Africa. But that was more to do with not factoring the South Africans not playing competitive cricket than an assessment of strengths and weaknesses.
So, what point assessing a series when the outcome of marquee series can be predicted based on who has the greater number of bowlers and the more variety in their bowling stocks and the stamina to bowl on dead, unresponsive wickets?
The joy of analysis for me is to be proven wrong in the analysis. Because that helps me re-evaluate and come up with more robust analyses. But given the way Test cricket is shaping up, its good bye to all that.
I would much rather focus on the domestic scene, where new and exiting talent is on display all the time. And where the expectations are lower and correspondingly, the disappointments.
And if that ceases to excite me, I will be content just watching him play-

With an unorthodox batting stance and the right team colors and with a seam position like this, whats not to like?
And in conclusion, I want to that each and every one of you who took time off their busy schedules to indulge me on the blog. Your readership was a huge motivation for sustaining the blog for over 2 and a half years. And to all of you who commented, a big thank you. Your insights have helped broaden my horizons and have helped me have a better understanding of the various facets and nuances of the game. But for you, my understanding of the game would have been limited.You have helped me stretch the boundaries of my limitations.The tamasha will go on, but the dopaisekatamasha ends here.
Cheers.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Monday, August 10, 2009
The case for isolation
Does India need International Cricket?
I say that the costs outweigh the benefits and that channeling our attention and energies towards domestic cricket will do India a world of good.
Ideally, I would like the Indian domestic scene to be structured like the NFL. And like the NFL, the game will be played on our terms, devoid of any outside interference, including the ICC.
As the two editions of the IPL showed, the BCCI has the capacity to organize and to market the game like no one else does.
And given the narrative of the Ranji Trophy over the last 4 seasons, there is a ready product available for the BCCI to exploit if they can only get themselves interested.
No more having to kow tow to all and sundry within the ICC, no more being held hostage to the whims and fancies or Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Australia or anyone else who wants to take a pot shot at us for the heck of it, no more of having to comply with rules and officials despite our reservations.
No more trying to shore up the ICC by contributing up to 70% of its monies while having to incur all the opprobrium for its inadequacies.
We have the talent, and the visible talent is but the tip of the iceberg. We have the fan base, we have the infrastructure. More can be done and should be done, but on our terms alone.
Our game, our terms, our way.That's all.
Faster is better
Batsmen’s strike rates were once not collected; now they are an integral part of the game. Cricket’s attitudes towards its fielding statistics needs rethinking, especially since fielding, in every sensible cricket fan’s mind, has changed dramatically, and for the better, in the course of the last twenty years.Read more.. here.
Saturday, August 08, 2009
Test 4 Day 2
Signed in about half an hour ago, saw England collapse from 58/0 to 78/5 and the question is - can my local league team play England? We have been on a bit of a skid recently and beating an international team will do our morale a world of good!
On a wicket on which Australia managed 445, it takes a special level of skill to first score 102 and then to lose 5 wickets for 20 runs.
Brilliant!
Friday, August 07, 2009
Test 4 Day 1
One thing differentiated the two sides on Day 1 of the Headingley Test - Discipline. Australia displayed oodles of discipline while England were all over the shop floor.
Like Edgbaston, England were slow on sussing up the bowling conditions. And when they did, they reaped immediate rewards.
Like Peter Siddle. And Stuart Clark. Whose lines were immaculate.
There is a special thrill that comes with seeing a bowler make a batsman look like an idiot. Doesn't happen all the time, and is much rarer these days with dead wickets, but when it happens, the joy! Oh the joy!!
And both Siddle and Clark delivered. It was exemplary bowling, marrying discipline with immaculate lengths. And it was brave. Having lost the toss, the Australian bowlers could just as easily have lost the plot by bowling too full or too short. That they did not is a tribute to the bowling.
England batted sloppily and bowled equally badly.
And yet, at the end of the day, England are still in with a chance if they can restrict Australia's lead to 150 or less.
If it seams, it will spin. And Australia have to bat last. With time no longer a factor in the game, England will have to emulate the Australians tomorrow by bowling much tighter. And then bat, remembering that this is a test match and not some charity match. Do that and we have a contest. A real contest.
Finally, the Ashes seems to be delivering on the hype!
Thursday, August 06, 2009
Test 4 Prelude
England's mantra going into this test should be - bat first.For a multitude of reasons, some of which are listed below
- It will force Australia to take 20 English wickets to win the test, something they have not done in the previous 3 tests.
- Batsmen get offered the light - if atmospherics on the first 3 days transpire as the Met Office predicts, there will be opportunities for bad light. And England will be in control.
- If batting conditions are hostile, it may seem a gamble but it is still upto Australia to get the right bowling combination and then to exploit the conditions. If conditions are not hostile, then Australia should be made to toil.
- If England falter in the first innings, Australia will have to set the pace. And factor in time as they would not want a repeat of Cardiff. That in turn can lead to mis steps.
- Australia have to bat last. With the Ashes on the line, pressure can do strange things to the best of them.
So, my line ups will be
With 5 bowlers
Strauss
Cook
Bopara
Bell
Collingwood
Prior
Broad
Swann
Sidebottom
Anderson
Harmison
And with 4 bowlers
Strauss
Cook
Bopara
Bell
Collingwood
Prior
Flintoff
Swann
Sidebottom
Anderson
Harmison
England has to do what India did in 2002 - play to their strengths and weather be damned.
Wednesday, August 05, 2009
An alternate view
Cricket journalism is dying if not dead and buried already. The new generation of cricket writers are not a patch on Harsha Bhogle and Rohit Brijnath. And they cannot hold a candle to Raju Bharatan and Rajan Bala.
Who amongst the new crop can marry music, anecdotes and cricket as beautifully as Bharatan did?
And who amongst the new crop can intoxicate the senses with words and transport you to a happy place the way Brijnath does?
Heck, they cannot even put a proper sentence together. All this generation does is blog and Twitter.
Condensing a thought to 140 characters or less, can there be anything more preposterous than twittering? No form, no rhythm, no narrative - even the grammar leaves a lot to be desired.
Imagine that!
Whatever happened to mellifluous prose, the gentle narrative of bat hitting ball, of building up the narrative till it reached a crescendo, of art and form?
And when they are not twittering, you can find them preening around like peacocks on Facebook. So much for the legacy of Cardus and James!
Sounds familiar? It is.
Tuesday, August 04, 2009
How practical?
From the WADA Athletes Whereabouts Guidelines
3.3 The overriding principle is that it is the responsibility of the Athlete to make him/herself available for Testing. In particular, if the Athlete specifies a location for the 60-minute time-slot where it is not easy to find him/her, and/or he/she does not remain at that location for the full 60-minute time-slot, he/she risks a Missed Test.Now, all of us travel. By planes, trains and by road. And we all have had to deal with missed flights, delayed departures and arrivals, traffic jams, fender benders and such like. And we all know that all of these take time to sort out.
3.4 Residence: The Athlete must provide, for each day in the following quarter, the full address of the place where he/she will be residing (i.e., sleeping overnight). (See IST clause 11.3.1(d)). Usually, that address would be expected to be in the same vicinity as the location specified for the 60-minute time-slot for that day, unless the Athlete will be travelling to another city or town during the day and wishes to specify a location at his/her destination for the 60-minute time-slot. If circumstances change so that the Athlete will be residing at a different place on one or more nights, he/she should update his/her Whereabouts Filing
3.5.2 If the Athlete’s regular schedule changes during the quarter, he/she should update his/her Whereabouts Filing to reflect the change. For example, if he/she changes schedule so that instead of going to the gym every morning from 10 am to noon, he/she goes every afternoon from 2pm to 4pm, then he/she should update his/her Whereabouts Filing to reflect that change.
3.5.3 On the other hand, if the Athlete simply departs from his/her regular schedule on a one-off basis, he/she does not need to update his/her Whereabouts Filing to reflect that. For example, if he/she usually goes to the gym every morning from 10 am to noon, but on one particular day in the quarter he/she goes to the gym not between 10 am and noon but instead between 3 pm and 4 pm, no update is necessary to reflect that.
3.6 60 minute timeslot: The Athlete must provide, for each day during the following quarter, one specific 60-minute time-slot between 6 am and 11 pm each day where the Athlete will be available and accessible for Testing at a specific location. (See IST clause 11.3.2). If circumstances change so that the Athlete will no longer be at that location at that time, he/she should update his/her Whereabouts Filing
3.7 As the comment to IST 11.3.3 states, if an Athlete does not know, at the beginning of the quarter, precisely what his/her whereabouts will be for each day in the quarter, he/she must provide his/her best information, based on where he/she expects to be at the relevant time(s), and then update that information as necessary in accordance with IST clause 11.4.2.
3.8 The Responsible ADO should monitor Whereabouts Filings for patterns of behaviour that may indicate an attempt to evade Sample collection or otherwise to undermine or hinder the Doping Control process. For example, if an Athlete is constantly updating his/her Whereabouts Filings to change the time and/or location for his/her 60-minute time-slot at the last minute, the Responsible ADOshould consider whether this may reflect a concerted effort to undermine attempts to locate him/her for Testing. Such a pattern of last-minute updates should be investigated as a possible anti-doping rule violation under Code Article 2.5 (Tampering or Attempted Tampering) or 2.3 (evasion of Sample collection).
Most, if not all, of us have encountered cell phone dead zones. And the odd flaky internet connection.
Now, imagine athlete A. A signatory to the Athlete whereabouts program. Now it is not outside of the realm of imagination that the said athlete will be better placed to detail his/her exact whereabouts ( including the 60 minute slot that is mandatorily required) on a day to day basis as compared to a week to week and month to month basis. Say the athlete makes a commitment to be available at a particular place at a particular time.Say too that the athlete has to drive from point A to point B to be at the particular place at the particular time. Given that the athlete in question is diligent, say that he/she provides enough buffer time to be at the said place at the said time. And then a fender bender occurs.
Now, per the provisions of the WADA ruling, if the athlete is not at the required location in the required time slot, he/she stands in violation of the program. And if the athlete reschedules the Whereabouts Filing, that too is a red flag. Strike 1.
Now assume that our athlete is vacationing abroad, and traveling the local train system. And assume that his/her wallet/purse get stolen at a station that is some distance from his/her place of residence. And he/she does not speak the local language. Happens to the best of us, so why should athletes be exempt. But our athlete has diligently filled out the location and the time when he/she will be available for testing on the Whereabouts form. And his her cellphone is stolen/ he/she does not have a calling plan for the country in question/the battery on the phone is dead. Strike 2.
So finally, our athlete in question is flying from Mumbai to New York. And the flight is delayed at Mumbai because of "technical reasons". So our athlete updates the Whereabouts form following proper procedure. Excepts that he/she goofs up when calculating the correct time difference by not accounting for daylight savings. For the athlete, all is well with the world... Except it is not. And if there is a problem getting a gate at New York because the slot was taken by some other airline ( because of the delayed take off) which adds to the overall delay, what then? As it is our athlete is in hot water because of the mis calculation of time and is therefore not present at the location he/she is supposed to be at the appointed time. Strike 3 and that's a two year ban for our athlete.
Shit happens. All the time.
The whole IRTP is a code put together by bureaucrats. And one thing that is true of bureaucrats is that they lack imagination. As the provisions show. And the other thing about bureaucrats is that they are rigid.If someone can come up with a set of rules that demand an athlete present his/her itinerary for a full quarter in advance, what is to prevent the said entity from flagging the slightest deviation from the norm as a strike?
And then there is the ICC.
10.1 Disqualification of Individual Results in an ICC Event During Which an Anti-Doping Rule Violation occurs Subject to Article 10.1.1, where a Cricketer is found to have committed an anti-doping rule violation during or in connection with an International Match in an ICC Event where the Cricketer also participated in other International Matches (for example, the anti-doping rule violation was committed during or in connection with the final of an ICC Event and the Cricketer had participated in earlier rounds of the ICC Event), then in addition to the consequences set out at Article 9 (in relation to the Disqualification of results obtained in the particular International Match during or in connection with which the anti-doping rule violation was committed), the anti-doping rule violation will also lead to Disqualification of all of the individual results and performance statistics obtained by the Cricketer in the other International Matches that he/she participated inSo if I understand this correctly, I can dope myself up, carry my team to the finals of an ICC tournament, and if I get caught, my records will be disqualified but my team will still legitimately contest the finals?
during the ICC Event in question with all resulting consequences, including forfeiture of any individual medals, individual ranking points, individual prizes obtained in those International Matches and the non-inclusion of his/her performance statistics in those International Matches towards any official individual averages and/or records, except as provided in Article 10.1.1.
10.1.1 If the Cricketer establishes that he/she bears No Fault or Negligence for the
violation, the Cricketer’s individual results in the International Matches other than
the International Match during or in connection with which the anti-doping rule
violation occurred shall not be Disqualified unless the ICC establishes that the
Cricketer’s results in the other International Matches were likely to have been
affected by his/her anti-doping rule violation.
And then there is this
10.2 Imposition of a Period of Ineligibility for the Presence, Use or Attempted Use, orand this
Possession of Prohibited Substances and Prohibited Methods
The period of Ineligibility imposed for a violation of Article 2.1 (presence of Prohibited Substance or its Metabolites or Markers in a Sample), Article 2.2 (Use or Attempted Use of Prohibited Substance or Prohibited Method) or Article 2.6 (Possession of Prohibited Substances and Methods) that is the Cricketer or Cricketer Support Personnel’s first offence shall be two years, unless the conditions for eliminating or reducing the period of Ineligibility (as provided in Articles 10.4 and 10.5) or the conditions for increasing the period of Ineligibility (as provided in Article 10.6) are met.
10.3.2 For a violation of Article 2.4 (Filing Failures and/or Missed Tests) that is the Cricketer’s first offence, the period of Ineligibility imposed shall be at a minimum one year and at a maximum two years, depending upon the Cricketer’s degree of fault.So, if I understand this correctly,if I do drugs and get caught the first time, I stand to lose two years. But if I am lax in filling in my forms, but don't do any drugs, I still stand to lose an year?
And people have actually signed up to this nonsense? Oh and there is more - in the case of filing failures or missed tests, the burden of proof lies with the athlete while in the case of an actual dope test, the burden of proof lies with the ICC. how fair is that?
England's problem
is not Andrew Flintoff's dodgy knee. But Stuart Broad's bowling form. And Ravi Bopara's batting form.
If Ravi Bopara had shown any semblance of grinding it out there in the three tests thus far, Flintoff the batsman would not be needed to add teeth to the batting line up.
And if Stuart Broad had bowled half as well as he is capable of, Flintoff the bowler would not be needed as cover.
Instead, now England are faced with the dilemma of a weakened batting and bowling line up in Flintoff's absence.
Like for like, Sidebottom or Harmison could do the job of Flintoff the bowler and probably with better results. But playing either weakens the batting line up. And England love to bat deep. And with the middle order not showing any signs of solidity ( bar Collingwood at Cardiff), playing 5 bowlers is a high risk strategy for a team that finds itself in the lead in the series.
The problem England have with Flintoff playing is that he can barely get through one day with his knee being dodgy. And with Broad not bowling well, England are effectively a 3 bowler team - which is exactly what Australia want, with thier superior batting.
Had Broad shown some semblance of form at Edgbaston, this would have been a non issue. But no team can afford to carry one, let alone three passengers with the series still open. And had Bopara scored a 50 in all of his outings thus far, again England could have carried Broad and drafted in Harmison or Sidebottom.
Left to me, I would play Flintoff as a pure batsman and go in with Sidebottom for Broad. 7 batsmen, 4 bowlers with the added variety of a left arm swing bowler. And I will bring in Harmison for Onions. Harsh, I know, but I would rather have atleast one hit the deck bowler for the variety that gives me.
Monday, August 03, 2009
Test 3 Day 5
In the end, Australia did what was required of them. They played time and more importantly, they played for runs. 84 overs and 287 runs for the loss of 3 wickets is a fair return for a team that found itself under the hammer.
It showed intent and I believe the Australian dressing room will be the happier one going into Headingley on Friday.
About the Test match itself, what should have been an engrossing Test match despite the rain turned out to be another of those dead Tests that are going to kill Test Cricket.
5 sessions were lost to the weather. 25 wickets fell in the remaining 9 odd sessions. Of which 7 fell in one sensational session on Day 2.
More proof that T20 is killing Test cricket! Now we can all go home happy.
Sunday, August 02, 2009
Test 3 Day 4
So far so good. The test has panned out the way I expected it to thus far.Starting with the toss until England's surprising counter attack in the middle session of the day, the Test was playing along expected lines.
But what the England counterattack and the two Australian wickets ( including probably the over of the day, by Swann to Ponting) have achieved is to put Australia firmly on the back foot.
Conventional wisdom will hold that Australia play for time tomorrow. Prolong the innings long enough to eke out a draw and regroup for Headingley.
It may work, but it is a move fraught with risks.Playing for time generally translates to not searching for runs. And with the early start and the atmospherics forecast, there is always the chance that the batsmen will offer one, earlier in their innings than later. And as the second day showed, it does not take too long for the team to unravel, especially when England have bowlers who can get more from the wicket than the Australians could.
88/2 in 28 overs is indicative of that mindset.
If ever there was a time now for Australia to rediscover what made them the most dominant force in world cricket for well over 15 years, it will be tomorrow.
I am not advocating recklessness, but I am definitely not advocating a 300 ball century for Mike Hussey. Australia have to look for runs and they have to show intent that they are looking for runs.And runs dont mean boundaries. Whatever happened to tip and run and those sharply run singles that used to make the fielding look ragged and would make the bowlers potty?
It is imperative that Australia maintain a scoring rate of atleast 3.5 in the first session of play. As the runs pile up, the lead will grow. And as the lead grows, English shoulders will sag ( think back to Lords on Day 4). And as the lead grows, time becomes of essence.
And if it is England that offers the draw, thats a huge morale boost for the Australian camp that is desperately looking for some good news.
Now, what I think wil happen is that there will be more of the same from the Australians. Hussey and Watson will see off the initial hour before the ball starts doing something ( as evidenced in both innings). And as when things start happening, England will attack- with Swann getting purchase, Strauss can actually rotate his fast bowlers from one end while giving Swann an extended spell from the other.
Which in turn will leave Australia in a rather awkward position of whether to attack or to defend. And as is the case most times of trying to straddle two stools, bad things will happen!